This article makes little sense to me. What is Bitcoin ? It is a volatile set of numbers that really has no value for use. Nor is it a storage of value. Who would want a storage of value with this kind of volatility ? So basically what Graham is saying is don't expect it to go up or down. Don't use money that you need for anything. He says he uses it for tax loss harvesting. So it apparently is good for losing. I don't know about you but I don't have any money lying around to gamble, and if it loses money, I can write it off on my taxes. Nonsense. The best thing to do is avoid gambling period. Invest instead in assets that produce something of value. Something that has intrinsic value. Don't be foolish with your money. Invest it in assets that offer value to consumers and do something useful in the world.
Haha I like you. We need more people speaking up on the shortsightedness in the crypto space. The technology is cool and has tons of potential, but people are sure dumping in more money than they can afford to lose! I’d like to see more people giving the general public advise on trying to save a tad more than you’re comfortable with. Or, developing a consistently sound investment philosophy with a financial planning focus. But unfortunately that doesn’t get clicks.
Thanks for your efforts to present a broad view of where BTC is really sitting with a historical view. 2 things I will point out- History is really limited. We have never had Institutional adoption and Sovereign adoption previously. If fact we had the exact OPPOSITE. This change in state is not expressed in prices. Would not surprise me to see the price driven down much further for accumulation by the same forces that move governments, psychology, narrative and media worldwide before a climb up past ATH. Time will tell. And on a personal note- Your disclosure about your "position". While I appreciate your candor, You DO NOT OWN or HOLD BTC. You hold a derivative. Join us and actually BUY some BTC and HOLD it. Your affection for Zero Sum Games is a large part of the overall fraud that is rampant in the so called "financial markets". If you truly have the courage to embrace something new, something not completely controlled by the same forces that have manipulated mankind since the year 1213,- come join us! By some BTC and Hold it offline- Yourself.
Excellent post. I’d highly encourage those who are genuinely interested in learning more about Bitcoin to read the Bitcoin Standard. Had a very influential impact on me. Cheers to diamond hands!
Calling Bitcoin an asset is a category error. It is a collectible, like a beanie baby or a baseball card. It has no underlying fundamentals. It has whatever value someone is willing to pay, but it has no intrinsic worth.
It feels like everything that once made Bitcoin feel like a great buy and something to support is now gone. I just don't see the demand anymore and feel like its now not the cool thing anymore. I see bitcoin only constantly sliding down from here.
The 4-year cycle has held five times running and it might hold again. But there's a structural difference this time that changes how it plays out even if the direction stays the same.
Previous cycles were driven by halving supply shocks hitting a market where price discovery happened on-chain. Spot buyers, miners, OG holders. This cycle has a paper layer sitting on top of that market that didn't exist before. Cash-settled futures open interest near $42B. Options above $30B. ETF short interest building. Most of that paper never touches a coin.
The cycle might repeat. But if price discovery has migrated from spot to synthetic, the shape of the cycle changes. The bottom might be shallower because paper shorts get squeezed. The top might be lower because hedged exposure replaces outright buying. Same rhythm, different instrument. Gold went through this transition over decades. Bitcoin is going through it in quarters.
The "price targets" always crack me up. As if there is actual intrinsic value that is being calculated somewhere.
"I never said we wouldn't sell Bitcoin, I said you should never sell Bitcoin."
- Michael Saylor
This article makes little sense to me. What is Bitcoin ? It is a volatile set of numbers that really has no value for use. Nor is it a storage of value. Who would want a storage of value with this kind of volatility ? So basically what Graham is saying is don't expect it to go up or down. Don't use money that you need for anything. He says he uses it for tax loss harvesting. So it apparently is good for losing. I don't know about you but I don't have any money lying around to gamble, and if it loses money, I can write it off on my taxes. Nonsense. The best thing to do is avoid gambling period. Invest instead in assets that produce something of value. Something that has intrinsic value. Don't be foolish with your money. Invest it in assets that offer value to consumers and do something useful in the world.
A small exposure is okay on Bitcoin.
This is like saying a small exposure to Pokemon cards is okay..... sure I guess if you want....
Haha I like you. We need more people speaking up on the shortsightedness in the crypto space. The technology is cool and has tons of potential, but people are sure dumping in more money than they can afford to lose! I’d like to see more people giving the general public advise on trying to save a tad more than you’re comfortable with. Or, developing a consistently sound investment philosophy with a financial planning focus. But unfortunately that doesn’t get clicks.
What percentage is Bitcoin of your portfolio
zero. Not sure that has anything to do with your original comment.
Thanks for your efforts to present a broad view of where BTC is really sitting with a historical view. 2 things I will point out- History is really limited. We have never had Institutional adoption and Sovereign adoption previously. If fact we had the exact OPPOSITE. This change in state is not expressed in prices. Would not surprise me to see the price driven down much further for accumulation by the same forces that move governments, psychology, narrative and media worldwide before a climb up past ATH. Time will tell. And on a personal note- Your disclosure about your "position". While I appreciate your candor, You DO NOT OWN or HOLD BTC. You hold a derivative. Join us and actually BUY some BTC and HOLD it. Your affection for Zero Sum Games is a large part of the overall fraud that is rampant in the so called "financial markets". If you truly have the courage to embrace something new, something not completely controlled by the same forces that have manipulated mankind since the year 1213,- come join us! By some BTC and Hold it offline- Yourself.
Excellent post. I’d highly encourage those who are genuinely interested in learning more about Bitcoin to read the Bitcoin Standard. Had a very influential impact on me. Cheers to diamond hands!
Calling Bitcoin an asset is a category error. It is a collectible, like a beanie baby or a baseball card. It has no underlying fundamentals. It has whatever value someone is willing to pay, but it has no intrinsic worth.
When everyone gives up on an asset at the same time, that’s usually the time to buy.
It feels like everything that once made Bitcoin feel like a great buy and something to support is now gone. I just don't see the demand anymore and feel like its now not the cool thing anymore. I see bitcoin only constantly sliding down from here.
The 4-year cycle has held five times running and it might hold again. But there's a structural difference this time that changes how it plays out even if the direction stays the same.
Previous cycles were driven by halving supply shocks hitting a market where price discovery happened on-chain. Spot buyers, miners, OG holders. This cycle has a paper layer sitting on top of that market that didn't exist before. Cash-settled futures open interest near $42B. Options above $30B. ETF short interest building. Most of that paper never touches a coin.
The cycle might repeat. But if price discovery has migrated from spot to synthetic, the shape of the cycle changes. The bottom might be shallower because paper shorts get squeezed. The top might be lower because hedged exposure replaces outright buying. Same rhythm, different instrument. Gold went through this transition over decades. Bitcoin is going through it in quarters.
We mapped this structural shift here: https://scenarica.substack.com/p/the-paper-twin