I am thoroughly impressed at your ability to write. This is an amazing article and I don't know where you find those opening stories but that is one of my favorite things. I would say that I have a bull/bear scenario. I think base case we have a mildly hard to hard landing which will cause stocks to be at least close to 0% return in 2023, but if there is any whiff of good news in the market we could see 10-15%. Obviously predicting anything 12 months into the future is impossible and I am definitely wrong, but that is my thought.
I live in Alaska where the minimal road system, wetlands, and rough terrain are major limiting factors for building. I don’t see our housing market dropping too much because the demand for homes on flat, dry land is much higher than the supply.
Hey Graham it's guys! A couple things I think are important to keep in mind along with the data you analyzed here are the the national association of Realtors and the companies noted all have a vested interest in housing prices remaining as high as possible. That said, I expect their predictions are likely to prove extremely optimistic as they neglect to include factors like excess building (especially commercial apartments permitted for 2023), the peak of remote work passing, and migration/population factors affecting future demand. I recommend looking into Reventure Consulting with Nick Gerli. He breaks down tremendous amounts of data to assess the market and make predictions based on current circumstances and historical data going back several decades. As for my personal opinion (not that anybody asked), I think 25% is gonna be closer to the average decline with much more substantial drops in a lot of the COVID boom markets (possibly pushing 50% from the peak in areas like Phoenix, Vegas, SLC, Boise, and parts of FL).
I am thoroughly impressed at your ability to write. This is an amazing article and I don't know where you find those opening stories but that is one of my favorite things. I would say that I have a bull/bear scenario. I think base case we have a mildly hard to hard landing which will cause stocks to be at least close to 0% return in 2023, but if there is any whiff of good news in the market we could see 10-15%. Obviously predicting anything 12 months into the future is impossible and I am definitely wrong, but that is my thought.
Thanks for the kind words Jacob, glad you liked it! Yes, will be interesting to see how the next few months pan out...
Awesome article but ever since I signed up I keep seeing this error “What’s up Graham, it’s guys here :-)”
Haha, it's an old blooper that became an intentional inside joke. Now you're in on it. Welcome to club :p
Amazingly written!! Loved the way you covered up points ongoing in the recent market scenario.
outstanding analysis.. you addressed crucial key topics here. So well written
Thank you :)
AHHH, I thought... there's no way Graham didn't catch this yet
It'll get worse before it gets better, but it always gets better.
Argentina. Mercado de la vivienda estancado, con leve tendencia a la baja.
I live in Alaska where the minimal road system, wetlands, and rough terrain are major limiting factors for building. I don’t see our housing market dropping too much because the demand for homes on flat, dry land is much higher than the supply.
Interesting...
Hey Graham it's guys! A couple things I think are important to keep in mind along with the data you analyzed here are the the national association of Realtors and the companies noted all have a vested interest in housing prices remaining as high as possible. That said, I expect their predictions are likely to prove extremely optimistic as they neglect to include factors like excess building (especially commercial apartments permitted for 2023), the peak of remote work passing, and migration/population factors affecting future demand. I recommend looking into Reventure Consulting with Nick Gerli. He breaks down tremendous amounts of data to assess the market and make predictions based on current circumstances and historical data going back several decades. As for my personal opinion (not that anybody asked), I think 25% is gonna be closer to the average decline with much more substantial drops in a lot of the COVID boom markets (possibly pushing 50% from the peak in areas like Phoenix, Vegas, SLC, Boise, and parts of FL).
Thanks for the input Barbara! Will look into it.
Graham, love your content - here and on YouTube. Boomers are 1946-1964.
Oops – corrected it. Thanks!
As a North Dakota Resident, who Lives in the “Red” Portion, I STRONGLY Disagree there will be a 5% Drop…we NEVER Drop. We Plateau 👌🏻
Vix around 21, complacency still rules?
2023 Bears settle in for long hall?