In short, my base case is that US stock indexes will see lower lows before the current cyclical bear market is over; perhaps seeing a new leg down as early as Q1.23. However at some point in the year, on the back of what will eventually be a slightly more dovish Fed narrative and a potential washout of bearish sentiment, stocks may begin a multi-month cyclical bull market rally, perhaps lasting into 2024 with a commodities bull market that could last quite a bit longer.
The stock market will surprise in 2023. Corporations are quietly sitting on near record profits that will be revealed throughout the year. Price sensitivity is now data science and AI driven. In other words, inflation is real, very real, but companies have been raising prices because they realize they can. The newly realized profits will offset the cost of debt/leverage in 2023 and outside of a few sectors (real estate, some tech) there will be no slowdown.
Merry Christmas Graham! 🎄🎁
Thank you for taking some of your valuable time to inform and educate others. It is recognized and appreciated.
Excellent read Graham! This is my take:
In short, my base case is that US stock indexes will see lower lows before the current cyclical bear market is over; perhaps seeing a new leg down as early as Q1.23. However at some point in the year, on the back of what will eventually be a slightly more dovish Fed narrative and a potential washout of bearish sentiment, stocks may begin a multi-month cyclical bull market rally, perhaps lasting into 2024 with a commodities bull market that could last quite a bit longer.
https://finiche.substack.com/p/market-minutes-and-portfolio-update
Cheers!
F.
The stock market will surprise in 2023. Corporations are quietly sitting on near record profits that will be revealed throughout the year. Price sensitivity is now data science and AI driven. In other words, inflation is real, very real, but companies have been raising prices because they realize they can. The newly realized profits will offset the cost of debt/leverage in 2023 and outside of a few sectors (real estate, some tech) there will be no slowdown.
I feel like a pond in the federal reserves chess board 😅 Thank you for all the content Graham, truly epic. Merry Christmas everyone!🎅🏽
Thank you for giving me something to do on Christmas. Enjoyed reading this.