One major problem is that if we *don't* have a recession that creates slack in the labor market, any uptick in the economy will spark renewed inflation. While economic activity has dropped off a bit the labor market is still VERY tight. The "balanced" rate of weekly unemployment claims needed to keep tightness from getting worse is 250-275k, we're recently been between 180K & 200K. 300K/week would be an ideal rate as It would gradually allow the unemployment rate to rise to 4% over a period of months. This rate, combined with a dropping inflation rate would even allow the Fed to *slowly* pivot (say 25bp every other meeting) next year.
Great story - I learned something new per usual. Wow - that is a lot of leverage.
If gov can control rent, second order thinking says they can make the case to control the price of eggs, and we know where price control of food leads us to....
Good stuff I needed to hear as I make the difficult decision to move from Portland, OR out of state. My husband and I bought our first home in 2020 from my mother, and only after did we realize we could get cheaper housing in almost any other state. Since then, we've struggled to manage living expenses with my entire month's paychecks going to our mortgage/pmi/property taxes alone, even though we both are considered middle class. Our house payment is definitely one of those root problems you mentioned. A bit sad that the most support I feel in our decision to move comes from our real estate agents, strangers on YouTube, and my own gut feeling that it's the right decision.
One major problem is that if we *don't* have a recession that creates slack in the labor market, any uptick in the economy will spark renewed inflation. While economic activity has dropped off a bit the labor market is still VERY tight. The "balanced" rate of weekly unemployment claims needed to keep tightness from getting worse is 250-275k, we're recently been between 180K & 200K. 300K/week would be an ideal rate as It would gradually allow the unemployment rate to rise to 4% over a period of months. This rate, combined with a dropping inflation rate would even allow the Fed to *slowly* pivot (say 25bp every other meeting) next year.
Great story - I learned something new per usual. Wow - that is a lot of leverage.
If gov can control rent, second order thinking says they can make the case to control the price of eggs, and we know where price control of food leads us to....
Good stuff I needed to hear as I make the difficult decision to move from Portland, OR out of state. My husband and I bought our first home in 2020 from my mother, and only after did we realize we could get cheaper housing in almost any other state. Since then, we've struggled to manage living expenses with my entire month's paychecks going to our mortgage/pmi/property taxes alone, even though we both are considered middle class. Our house payment is definitely one of those root problems you mentioned. A bit sad that the most support I feel in our decision to move comes from our real estate agents, strangers on YouTube, and my own gut feeling that it's the right decision.
Good analysis! Unfortunately, these issues are usually "resolved" by politics rather than economics.