Thank you for summary of the changes. The last chart can be seen as misleading since it uses only dollars instead of percentages. A $6,000 increase for someone making $300,000 is a 2% increase. A $2,000 for someone making $80,000 is a 2.5% increase. Even a 1% across the board would cut for all brackets would still "favor the rich" looking at just dollars.
thanks GRAHAM for this ... i am 18 now i would buy bitcoin valued for small amount and wait for 5 years or a decade then let's enjoy the profit together "LOVE FROM INDIA" :)
Have to disagree with the cost, new spending including tax expenditures are $350 billion offset by a $1 trillion in cuts and reductions. Based on CBO scoring the bill appears to add to the debt because of base line budgeting rules, so on paper it look like a reduction in government revenue. Remember a reduction in projected revenue does not means a cut in revenue.
Nicely balanced argument - thanks for providing this. Even as a bitcoin bull, I cringe when I see people like Saylor say bitcoin will never have another bear market. Nonsense. History rhymes even with bitcoin. Stay vigilant with your investments always.
Two risks on BTC you didn't list in your article. Luckily, both have silver linings:
1. Diminishing returns. Each four year cycle BTC increase is dropping The 2016 cycle BTC went up 100x from approximately $200, the 2020 cycle BTC went up 22x from $3,200, this time 2024 cycle BTC isn't likely to do much better than 10x from its 2022 low of $15,500. So, while there's still room for some upswing it should be nearing its top this fall.
2. Crypto Winters, every four years BTC takes a year to fall precipitously. The 2016 cycle took 2018 to dive well over 80%. The 2020 cycle BTC fell 74% between Nov 2021-2022. This time it's safe to assume that between sometime late this year and sometime late next year BTC will fall be two-thirds or a bit more.
This isn't warn to you away from BTC - only to point out that a great time to buy BTC is less than 18 months away!
Good article. I'm wanting to look at the deficit side. If the US Gov get to $70 billion in tariff revenue, does that reduce the federal deficit? I know it is a tax on US households, however, if it creates US jobs, gets US products made at home cheaper would that not help the deficit?
Since I am owner of manufacturing business in the US, it is time to level the field. We as manufacturers have had giant walls aboard to be able to sell our products. Tariffs, governmental subsidies and have been completely blocked in some categories.
What are your thoughts regarding this on the deficit?
You show the chart with the the bottom 20% in the red and the bill costing them $560. Exactly why and how will this cost them money and who are "some people"?
“ The brand new tax plan keeps the tax brackets unchanged from 12% to 37% as they were in 2018, and will increase slightly starting in 2029. The 39.6% tax bracket has been removed, and after-tax income for nearly all Americans will be slightly higher.”
Not sure how you square that with your headline of the “largest tax cut in American history”. Seems like more of the status quo than a tax cut. Given the limitations on the no taxes on tips and overtime’s and as well as the small deductions from cut interest, hard to see those being the largest tax cut in history.
Great insights, Graham! Most people do not highlight both sides of the bill, so I appreciate the pros and cons of the newsletter
Glad you liked it!
Great article Graham.
This is the most overlooked information that many news networks intentionally avoid:
"considering that the top 50% of taxpayers pay 97% of all income taxes, it makes sense that a bigger tax cut would benefit them more."
Thanks Danny
Great article and info, Thank you Graham!
Thank you for summary of the changes. The last chart can be seen as misleading since it uses only dollars instead of percentages. A $6,000 increase for someone making $300,000 is a 2% increase. A $2,000 for someone making $80,000 is a 2.5% increase. Even a 1% across the board would cut for all brackets would still "favor the rich" looking at just dollars.
Nice catch!
thanks GRAHAM for this ... i am 18 now i would buy bitcoin valued for small amount and wait for 5 years or a decade then let's enjoy the profit together "LOVE FROM INDIA" :)
Have to disagree with the cost, new spending including tax expenditures are $350 billion offset by a $1 trillion in cuts and reductions. Based on CBO scoring the bill appears to add to the debt because of base line budgeting rules, so on paper it look like a reduction in government revenue. Remember a reduction in projected revenue does not means a cut in revenue.
Nicely balanced argument - thanks for providing this. Even as a bitcoin bull, I cringe when I see people like Saylor say bitcoin will never have another bear market. Nonsense. History rhymes even with bitcoin. Stay vigilant with your investments always.
Two risks on BTC you didn't list in your article. Luckily, both have silver linings:
1. Diminishing returns. Each four year cycle BTC increase is dropping The 2016 cycle BTC went up 100x from approximately $200, the 2020 cycle BTC went up 22x from $3,200, this time 2024 cycle BTC isn't likely to do much better than 10x from its 2022 low of $15,500. So, while there's still room for some upswing it should be nearing its top this fall.
2. Crypto Winters, every four years BTC takes a year to fall precipitously. The 2016 cycle took 2018 to dive well over 80%. The 2020 cycle BTC fell 74% between Nov 2021-2022. This time it's safe to assume that between sometime late this year and sometime late next year BTC will fall be two-thirds or a bit more.
This isn't warn to you away from BTC - only to point out that a great time to buy BTC is less than 18 months away!
Good article. I'm wanting to look at the deficit side. If the US Gov get to $70 billion in tariff revenue, does that reduce the federal deficit? I know it is a tax on US households, however, if it creates US jobs, gets US products made at home cheaper would that not help the deficit?
Since I am owner of manufacturing business in the US, it is time to level the field. We as manufacturers have had giant walls aboard to be able to sell our products. Tariffs, governmental subsidies and have been completely blocked in some categories.
What are your thoughts regarding this on the deficit?
Thanks
LJTurco
Enlightening!!!
You show the chart with the the bottom 20% in the red and the bill costing them $560. Exactly why and how will this cost them money and who are "some people"?
“ The brand new tax plan keeps the tax brackets unchanged from 12% to 37% as they were in 2018, and will increase slightly starting in 2029. The 39.6% tax bracket has been removed, and after-tax income for nearly all Americans will be slightly higher.”
Not sure how you square that with your headline of the “largest tax cut in American history”. Seems like more of the status quo than a tax cut. Given the limitations on the no taxes on tips and overtime’s and as well as the small deductions from cut interest, hard to see those being the largest tax cut in history.
Great info!